UK: The 2008 Financial Services Survey - A Dark Economic Cloud Has Descended Over The City Of London

Last Updated: 19 February 2009
Article by Natasha Lee

Natasha Lee explains the results of our latest survey of the financial services sector, which indicate a bleak outlook for businesses.

For the second year in a row, the Smith & Williamson annual survey of FSA-regulated businesses shows a decrease in business confidence. However, this decline has accelerated substantially, with 56% of respondents reporting a drop in profit margins. Even more unsettling is the news that 62% of participants believe that London's reputation as a financial centre has fallen since last year.

Business Confidence

Now in its 11th year, the survey collects the opinions and expectations of financial services businesses in the City of London. This year, 44% of respondents expressed that confidence in their business prospects had decreased or strongly decreased over the last year, which is in contrast to 2007, when 49% were reasonably confident and only 18% were not. Last year's survey showed the first decrease in business confidence in 5 years. While the latest survey does not compare like-for-like questions with the 2007 survey, it does illustrate that the confidence of the sector has plummeted over the past year.

Fig 1: Business Confidence

According to 62% of respondents, London's reputation as a major financial centre has decreased over the past 12 months. This shows a significant shift from 2007, when 88% of respondents agreed that London had strengthened its position as a key financial centre over the last five years. It is expected that New York or Dubai is more likely to take over the mantle as the world's financial centre.

While the results are more negative than in previous years, the respondents appear to believe that they can weather the current storm. When questioned more closely about their experiences in 2008 and what their expectations were for 2009, they revealed what appears to be a varied outlook. For example, 38% of respondents have seen the volume of their business decrease in the past year, while 56% of respondents report a stable or increased volume of business in the past 12 months.

Fig 2: Change In Business Volume Over The Past 12 Months

While 56% reported decreased profit margins and 38% a decrease in turnover, 39% of respondents are expecting stable turnover and 26% are expecting an increase in turnover in 2009. This shows a dramatic contrast to the 2007 survey results, where 54% expected turnover to increase and only 4% expected a decrease.

Fig 3: Turnover Expectations: Comparison Of 2007 And 2008 Results

Considering the results above, it is unsurprising that, generally, respondents are not expecting an increase in their headcount, with nearly a quarter forecasting redundancies. For some firms this will be a new experience that will give rise to tax and legal issues that will need to be addressed. The overall message from respondents in respect of headcount is consistent with a low level of anticipated growth.

In respect of capital expenditure, a decrease is expected by 43% of respondents, while 41% expect it to remain the same and 16% expect an increase over the next year. However, 95% of the respondents expect expenditure on regulatory compliance to remain the same or increase. This appears to reflect a lack of growth, making firms more conscious of their expenditure. As a result, only necessary expenditure will be made, rather than discretionary or investment expenditure.

With the expectations for financial services businesses appearing to remain on an even keel through 2009, it must be that businesses in the sector are planning on making cuts elsewhere. The survey shows that more than half of the respondents expect a cut in discretionary spending in 2009. Spending on 'optional' services is likely to be downsized over the next 12 months, and marketing budgets could well feel the pinch.

Tax Issues

The results from the survey in respect of tax are not very revealing, with a majority of responses suggesting that expected changes to UK tax laws will have little to no effect on businesses. For example, 63% of the respondents forecast that recent changes to the UK tax legislation will have a neutral impact on the growth of the financial services industry. 88% of respondents think that the changes to be made to the supply rules for VAT will have neither a positive nor negative financial impact on their firm's business. Furthermore, 82% of the respondents reported that the various changes to VAT have had a balanced effect on their business.

These responses indicate that tax legislation is the least of the industry's worries. Businesses are undoubtedly more concerned about getting through an increasingly challenging economic climate, both in terms of winning work and securing additional funding.

The survey asked the respondents to select the factors they believe will most affect business growth over the next 12 months and the top three responses were: further economic factors, consumer confidence and their ability to raise funds.

In short, the views expressed in our survey are consistent with those of economic analysts: 2009 will be a hard year across the economy, and the financial services industry will be no different.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

To print this article, all you need is to be registered on

Click to Login as an existing user or Register so you can print this article.

In association with
Related Video
Up-coming Events Search
Font Size:
Mondaq on Twitter
Register for Access and our Free Biweekly Alert for
This service is completely free. Access 250,000 archived articles from 100+ countries and get a personalised email twice a week covering developments (and yes, our lawyers like to think you’ve read our Disclaimer).
Email Address
Company Name
Confirm Password
Mondaq Topics -- Select your Interests
 Law Performance
 Law Practice
 Media & IT
 Real Estate
 Wealth Mgt
Asia Pacific
European Union
Latin America
Middle East
United States
Worldwide Updates
Check to state you have read and
agree to our Terms and Conditions

Terms & Conditions and Privacy Statement (the Website) is owned and managed by Mondaq Ltd and as a user you are granted a non-exclusive, revocable license to access the Website under its terms and conditions of use. Your use of the Website constitutes your agreement to the following terms and conditions of use. Mondaq Ltd may terminate your use of the Website if you are in breach of these terms and conditions or if Mondaq Ltd decides to terminate your license of use for whatever reason.

Use of

You may use the Website but are required to register as a user if you wish to read the full text of the content and articles available (the Content). You may not modify, publish, transmit, transfer or sell, reproduce, create derivative works from, distribute, perform, link, display, or in any way exploit any of the Content, in whole or in part, except as expressly permitted in these terms & conditions or with the prior written consent of Mondaq Ltd. You may not use electronic or other means to extract details or information about’s content, users or contributors in order to offer them any services or products which compete directly or indirectly with Mondaq Ltd’s services and products.


Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the documents and related graphics published on this server for any purpose. All such documents and related graphics are provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to this information, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title and non-infringement. In no event shall Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers be liable for any special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of information available from this server.

The documents and related graphics published on this server could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the information herein. Mondaq Ltd and/or its respective suppliers may make improvements and/or changes in the product(s) and/or the program(s) described herein at any time.


Mondaq Ltd requires you to register and provide information that personally identifies you, including what sort of information you are interested in, for three primary purposes:

  • To allow you to personalize the Mondaq websites you are visiting.
  • To enable features such as password reminder, newsletter alerts, email a colleague, and linking from Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to your website.
  • To produce demographic feedback for our information providers who provide information free for your use.

Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) do not sell or provide your details to third parties other than information providers. The reason we provide our information providers with this information is so that they can measure the response their articles are receiving and provide you with information about their products and services.

If you do not want us to provide your name and email address you may opt out by clicking here .

If you do not wish to receive any future announcements of products and services offered by Mondaq by clicking here .

Information Collection and Use

We require site users to register with Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to view the free information on the site. We also collect information from our users at several different points on the websites: this is so that we can customise the sites according to individual usage, provide 'session-aware' functionality, and ensure that content is acquired and developed appropriately. This gives us an overall picture of our user profiles, which in turn shows to our Editorial Contributors the type of person they are reaching by posting articles on Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) – meaning more free content for registered users.

We are only able to provide the material on the Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) site free to site visitors because we can pass on information about the pages that users are viewing and the personal information users provide to us (e.g. email addresses) to reputable contributing firms such as law firms who author those pages. We do not sell or rent information to anyone else other than the authors of those pages, who may change from time to time. Should you wish us not to disclose your details to any of these parties, please tick the box above or tick the box marked "Opt out of Registration Information Disclosure" on the Your Profile page. We and our author organisations may only contact you via email or other means if you allow us to do so. Users can opt out of contact when they register on the site, or send an email to with “no disclosure” in the subject heading

Mondaq News Alerts

In order to receive Mondaq News Alerts, users have to complete a separate registration form. This is a personalised service where users choose regions and topics of interest and we send it only to those users who have requested it. Users can stop receiving these Alerts by going to the Mondaq News Alerts page and deselecting all interest areas. In the same way users can amend their personal preferences to add or remove subject areas.


A cookie is a small text file written to a user’s hard drive that contains an identifying user number. The cookies do not contain any personal information about users. We use the cookie so users do not have to log in every time they use the service and the cookie will automatically expire if you do not visit the Mondaq website (or its affiliate sites) for 12 months. We also use the cookie to personalise a user's experience of the site (for example to show information specific to a user's region). As the Mondaq sites are fully personalised and cookies are essential to its core technology the site will function unpredictably with browsers that do not support cookies - or where cookies are disabled (in these circumstances we advise you to attempt to locate the information you require elsewhere on the web). However if you are concerned about the presence of a Mondaq cookie on your machine you can also choose to expire the cookie immediately (remove it) by selecting the 'Log Off' menu option as the last thing you do when you use the site.

Some of our business partners may use cookies on our site (for example, advertisers). However, we have no access to or control over these cookies and we are not aware of any at present that do so.

Log Files

We use IP addresses to analyse trends, administer the site, track movement, and gather broad demographic information for aggregate use. IP addresses are not linked to personally identifiable information.


This web site contains links to other sites. Please be aware that Mondaq (or its affiliate sites) are not responsible for the privacy practices of such other sites. We encourage our users to be aware when they leave our site and to read the privacy statements of these third party sites. This privacy statement applies solely to information collected by this Web site.

Surveys & Contests

From time-to-time our site requests information from users via surveys or contests. Participation in these surveys or contests is completely voluntary and the user therefore has a choice whether or not to disclose any information requested. Information requested may include contact information (such as name and delivery address), and demographic information (such as postcode, age level). Contact information will be used to notify the winners and award prizes. Survey information will be used for purposes of monitoring or improving the functionality of the site.


If a user elects to use our referral service for informing a friend about our site, we ask them for the friend’s name and email address. Mondaq stores this information and may contact the friend to invite them to register with Mondaq, but they will not be contacted more than once. The friend may contact Mondaq to request the removal of this information from our database.


This website takes every reasonable precaution to protect our users’ information. When users submit sensitive information via the website, your information is protected using firewalls and other security technology. If you have any questions about the security at our website, you can send an email to

Correcting/Updating Personal Information

If a user’s personally identifiable information changes (such as postcode), or if a user no longer desires our service, we will endeavour to provide a way to correct, update or remove that user’s personal data provided to us. This can usually be done at the “Your Profile” page or by sending an email to

Notification of Changes

If we decide to change our Terms & Conditions or Privacy Policy, we will post those changes on our site so our users are always aware of what information we collect, how we use it, and under what circumstances, if any, we disclose it. If at any point we decide to use personally identifiable information in a manner different from that stated at the time it was collected, we will notify users by way of an email. Users will have a choice as to whether or not we use their information in this different manner. We will use information in accordance with the privacy policy under which the information was collected.

How to contact Mondaq

You can contact us with comments or queries at

If for some reason you believe Mondaq Ltd. has not adhered to these principles, please notify us by e-mail at and we will use commercially reasonable efforts to determine and correct the problem promptly.