Each year we publish our predictions for the UK tech and digital sectors that will impact all ranges of businesses, not just those in the TMT sector, over the coming year. They form our Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions 2018 report, now in its 17th year.
These predictions are based on hundreds of conversations with industry executives and tens of thousands of online interviews with members of the public around the world.
This blog focuses on the predictions around smartphones and the invisible advancements taking place inside them.
Smartphones – the most used digital device
The smartphone celebrated its 10th birthday last summer and over the next five years, we predict that smartphone adoption will continue to grow. By the end of 2023, the smartphone will be the most used digital device by a clear margin. More than 92% of adults in the UK are expected to have a smartphone, rising from 85% today. Similarly, by 2023, more than 85% of 55-75 year-olds will have a smartphone, exceeding penetration of PCs and laptops within this age group.
We believe that we will also see global smartphone sales will rise to 1.85 billion per year in 2023, a 19% increase over 2018, equivalent to more than five million units sold every day.
At what cost?
Globally, 180 million smartphone units will be sold in retail for $1,000 or more in 2018, generating more than $200 billion in revenue. We also forecast an average selling price for smartphones of $350 in 2023, implying a total market value of $650 billion, versus $478 billion in 2017.
In addition, we also predict that in 2018, 45% of adults will worry that they are using their phones too much. Last year, our Mobile Consumer Survey showed that more than a third of respondents look at their smartphones within five minutes of waking, and over half do so within a quarter of an hour. More than three-quarters check their smartphones within the last hour before going to sleep.
All in all, last year in the UK, 37% of adults worried about using their smartphones too much. Similarly, almost two-thirds (65%) of 18-24 year olds will worry that they are using their phones too much, increasing from 53% in 2017. As a result, consumers may try to limit their usage.
As smartphones continue to be a big part of our professional and personal lives, I believe we are beginning to find more of a balance and etiquette, especially in our personal lives, even as we continue to experience more opportunities in this exciting mobile ecosystem.
Invisible innovation
Over the past decade the smartphone has redefined how people live and interact with each other. Over the next five years, we predict the smartphone will enter an era of 'invisible innovation', with under-the-surface improvements to software, connectivity, memory, sensors and artificial intelligence.
By 2023 the average smartphone will have 128 GB or more storage, compared with about 32 GB in 2018. Technology such as 5G and artificial intelligence will become prevalent, and this will have considerable ramifications for the work of business.
Smartphones at work
Our Insights team estimates that in the European Union alone, 45% of the workforce (about 100 million people) could be using a mobile device as their primary (or only) work device. However, our Mobile Readiness for Work Survey 2018 has revealed that the PC is still king in the UK workplace, with 62% of UK workers currently using a PC (desktop or laptop) for work purposes, 40% using a mobile device (smartphone or tablet), and 21% not using a device for work at all.
It may be that in the future the smartphone will become the ideal digital tool for the UK's workforce, more so than other devices such as laptops or tablets. Its merits are its portability, biometric security and constant connection.
It's probably true to say that, as technology becomes more sophisticated and apps become more available, employers will respond by deploying mobiles more widely. The smartphone will be used for a broader range of work processes, with the PC becoming a more specialised device used for more complex tasks, such as data analysis, which require a larger screen.
Therefore I believe the smartphone will drive much of the next phase of business process reinvention, providing a digital tool for the tens of millions of workers in the UK whose roles are not desk-based. How quickly will this revolution will happen? Well, that's difficult to predict, especially as the Mobile Readiness for Work Survey 2018 indicated that only 16% of workers in the UK are currently provided with a smartphone by the organisation they work for.
Want to find out more?
Our head of global TMT research, Paul Lee, has recorded a short video explaining Deloitte's prediction about the future of the smartphone in more detail:
And you can find out more on our Mobile Readiness for Work Survey 2018 on our microsite.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
