UNITA has agreed to comply with UN Security Council demands to fulfil its obligations under the terms of the country's peace process. The UN had threatened UNITA with a package of sanctions due to come into effect on 30 September.

Despite the move, the UN may go ahead with sanctions to warn UNITA that its continued prevarication over the peace process is no longer acceptable.

Apart from a travel ban on UNITA officials announced on 28 August, the full extent of planned sanctions is unclear. It is likely that sanctions will include measures to stop UNITA resupplying its forces. Earlier sanctions against UNITA failed because of the movement's extensive political and commercial contacts in neighbouring Congo (DRC - formerly Zaire). These contacts largely ended with the defeat and exile of UNITA's ally, former president Mobutu Sese Seko in May. New Congo (DRC) President Laurent Desire Kabila is an ally of the government and would support UN sanctions.

Security implications

The UN's repeated failure to assert itself with UNITA is heightening the chance of renewed conflict, as government forces become increasingly frustrated at the lack of progress. Behind the threat of UN sanctions are fears that UNITA is building up its forces in contravention of the peace deal that ended the civil war in 1994: thousands of demobilised UNITA troops are thought to have been rearmed in recent months. UNITA claims that it is preparing to defend itself in the face of a government military build-up.

The repeated failure of previous sanctions against the rebel movement has led government military chief Gen Joao de Matos to prepare contingency plans and build up forces for a renewed conflict. A major military reinforcement operation began in key towns in central, north-east and northern Angola in August. The movement could indicate that fighting in the contested north-east diamond region of Lunda Norte and Lunda Sul is likely to spread to other areas. Large quantities of military hardware have been flown to Malange, Cuito, Cafunfu and Suarimo. Troop convoys have also been reported arriving in the towns. UNITA rebels besieged all the towns concerned during the civil war.

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