China: Desarrollo económico y perspectivas en China

Last Updated: 22 October 2018
Article by TMF Group

El crecimiento económico en China se mantuvo sólido en el 2017, superando las expectativas del mercado. Sin embargo, el crecimiento de esta economía gigante se ha desacelerado en el 2018.

Esto es lo que las empresas necesitan saber antes de invertir en China.

El gobierno ha introducido medidas importantes para desacelerar el ritmo de endeudamiento en la economía desde el 2016. Esto ha resultado en un crecimiento más lento del crédito total para el sector no financiero hasta el 14.1% anualizado en los primeros once meses de 2017, en comparación con un promedio del 15.9% en el 2016.

Tras estas medidas de des-aceleramiento, China parece estar en camino para mejorar los niveles de confianza en los ojos de los inversionistas, las empresas y los consumidores de todo el mundo.

El crecimiento del PIB en el 2017 superó las expectativas

La economía de China creció un 6.9% en el 2017 según el informe oficial, lo que representa el primer aumento en el ritmo de crecimiento en siete años. La cifra superó el objetivo de expansión anual oficial de Pekín de aproximadamente el 6.5%, para el deleite de los inversionistas de todo el mundo.

El Banco Mundial espera que el crecimiento del país disminuya a un 6.5% en el 2018, luego a 6.3% o 6.2% en el 2019-20. Esto es tomando en consideración la política macroeconómica más estricta esperada, un crecimiento más moderado en el comercio mundial, reformas para discutir el exceso de capacidad en una serie de industrias y minimizar los riesgos económicos desde la crisis mundial financiera.

Ingreso familiar en ascenso y creación de empleos

El aumento de los ingresos y la creación de empleo se encuentran entre los mejores indicadores del bienestar de una economía. En el 2017, el ingreso real per cápita de los hogares de China disponible para gastar creció un 7.3%, en comparación con el 6.3% del año anterior, y superó el ritmo de crecimiento del PIB. El crecimiento fue más rápido en las áreas rurales (7.3%) que en las áreas urbanas (6.5%).

En el 2017, se crearon 13.5 millones de nuevos empleos urbanos en China en comparación con 13.1 millones en el 2016. Como resultado, los gastos de consumo de los hogares siguieron, con un aumento en las áreas rurales de 6.8% y áreas urbanas de 4.1% en el 2017. Esto trajo mejoras a los estándares de vida de la nación y los diferenciales de ingresos rurales-urbanos fueron más estrechos.

Dicho esto, el Índice de Confianza del Consumidor (CCI) de China se situó en 112 puntos en el 2017, una ligera mejoría comparados con los 106 puntos del 2016. Esta mejoría se ve respaldada por un mercado de trabajo saludable, así como por la disposición de los consumidores a gastar durante dos años consecutivos, de acuerdo con la última encuesta trimestral de Nielsen, la firma de investigación de mercado global.

Del mismo modo, la confianza empresarial en China aumentó significativamente en el 2017, según un nuevo informe de la Asociación de Contadores Públicos Autorizados y el Instituto de Contables Administrativos.

La Encuesta Global de Situaciones Económicas de 1,277 contables en todo el mundo indica que el índice de confianza empresarial en China superó los 30 puntos en el tercer trimestre; el nivel más alto desde el 2011.

"Basándose en su enorme población y gran demanda del mercado, junto con las políticas financieras activas del gobierno, China sigue siendo un destino activo para actividades comerciales", dijo Jenny Gu, vicepresidenta de ACCA.

Enfoque continuo en la reducción de deudas de riesgo

China ha adoptado medidas monetarias y regulatorias más estrictas para reducir los riesgos financieros. El banco central de China exige a los bancos comerciales que limiten la proporción de productos de administración patrimonial (WMP, por sus siglas en inglés) invertidos en activos (diferentes a acciones y bonos) a menos del 4% de los activos totales y al 35% de los WMP.

Otras medidas incluyen un control más exhaustivo y frecuente de los riesgos del sector bancario (incluyendo hojas fuera de balance) y crear "fondos de asistencia mutua" para mitigar los riesgos de liquidez, promover comités acreedores para reestructurar la deuda y establecer una Comisión Estatal de Desarrollo y Estabilidad Financiera para mejorar la coordinación regulatoria.

A pesar de las medidas adoptadas por el gobierno, la relación deuda/proporción del país puede llegar a más del 320% para el año 2020, lo que sigue preocupando a todos.

Industrias en auge a vigilar

Cuidado de la salud: en octubre de 2017, el Consejo Estatal de China propuso acelerar las aprobaciones de nuevos medicamentos y anunció que los datos de ensayos clínicos en el extranjero estarán disponibles legalmente para su uso en el proceso de aprobación. Esto dará cabida a los fabricantes nacionales de medicamentos con una gran cartera de comercializar sus productos más rápido.

Juegos: el mercado de juegos de China creció a 203.6 millones de RMB (alrededor de US $30.9 millones) en el 2017, un aumento del 23% en comparación con el año anterior y se convirtió en el líder mundial en ingresos totales por juegos. Más de la mitad de las ventas de juegos el año pasado, 116.1 mil millones de RMB, fueron juegos móviles y registró un aumento de más de 30 mil millones de RMB, convirtiéndose en 41.7% en comparación con el 2016.

Comercio electrónico: China tiene uno de los ambientes de comercio electrónico más reconocidos y avanzados del mundo, con más de $1.15 trillones de dólares en ventas al detal en línea registrados en el 2017. El evento Doble 11 el 11 de noviembre de 2017, también conocido como Día de los Solteros, se convirtió en un experimento exitoso de la economía China que está dirigida por el consumo la cual evoluciona digitalmente.

Logística: el Centro de Pronósticos de Ciencias de la Academia de Ciencias de China publicó un informe en el 2017 que establecía que los ingresos totales de la industria de la logística excederán los 9 trillones de yuanes en el 2018. Esta industria está ampliamente respaldada por la creciente industria del comercio electrónico, y las inversiones en transporte, almacenamiento y la industria postal mantendrán una tasa de crecimiento del 10% en el 2018, según el mismo informe.

Contáctenos

A pesar del desempeño económico positivo en el 2017, China aún tiene mucho potencial para ofrecer a los inversionistas y al crecimiento comercial. Sin embargo, hacer negocios en China tiene sus ventajas y retos. TMF China tiene un amplio conocimiento y la experiencia reguladora y financiera para ayudar a su empresa a dirigirse por las complejidades locales.

Ya sea que desea establecerse en China o simplificar sus operaciones existentes, contáctenos.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

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