Canada: Canadian Free Trade Framework Mitigates A NAFTA Demise

Last Updated: December 12 2017
Article by John M. Weekes

The NAFTA is a very valuable agreement, but it would not be the end of the world if it disappeared.

That is a bold statement, to be sure, and "end of the world" sets a high bar. But many believe that if NAFTA somehow disappeared it would spell disaster. This view is far too pessimistic. Frankly, NAFTA was long overdue for an update, which is part of the reason we find ourselves in the current renegotiation scenario.

But there are several moving parts in play that should help mitigate the uncertainty hampering the investment climate in Canada, even now as the United States contemplates withdrawing from NAFTA.

First, there is some question as to what role the U.S. Congress would play and what treatment Congress would accord to both Canada and Mexico in the absence of NAFTA. It is important to note that in the United States, the free trade treatment accorded to Canada and Mexico is made effective through American legislation—not by the provisions of NAFTA. Clearly Congress would need to be involved.

Second, in the case of Canada, the country had a bilateral free trade agreement with the United States that was put into suspension when NAFTA came into effect. The intent of the suspension was that if the NAFTA for some reason disappeared, then the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) would come back into being. CUSFTA is not as good an agreement as the NAFTA—it does not have the same clarity and it is not nearly as developed in the areas of services and investment and intellectual property—but it did provide for the elimination of all duties. For CUSFTA to come back into force would require goodwill between the two countries. Where it could get complicated is if people started thinking about “improving it” at the same time.

But even then there would still be uncertainty. CUSFTA contains a six-month withdrawal clause. So any action on NAFTA by the United States might also include notice that it was pulling out of the previous bilateral agreement within six months.

Third, under the terms of the World Trade Organization, NAFTA is a free trade agreement. Countries are only allowed to accord each other tariff preferences in the context of an FTA. So if NAFTA were no longer in place, Canada and the United States, and Mexico and the United States, would be required by the WTO to go back and apply WTO tariffs to each other. The level of tariffs in the WTO is actually lower, by about a third on average, than it would have been at the time of the NAFTA negotiations, so a lot of trade could still take place under WTO tariffs. It should be noted that if the United States withdrew from NAFTA, the agreement would remain in force between Canada and Mexico. So trade between Canada and Mexico would remain duty free.

Fourth, although no other country is going to replace the importance of the U.S. market, Canada has been negotiating free trade agreements with other countries. Canada has completed and provisionally implemented an FTA with the European Union. It has a free trade agreement with Korea, with the European Free Trade Association and with several countries in Latin America, including Colombia and Chile. In addition, Canada has engaged with 10 other partners in the former Trans-Pacific Partnership in an effort to bring that agreement into force in the coming year. Canada is also negotiating with India and is looking at the prospects of engaging in free trade negotiations with China.

Course of Action for Business

The biggest thing business should be doing now is analyzing what the actual effects of different scenarios would be and advising their governments and their legislators on how to defend their interests.

The Canadian government is suggesting businesses should be thinking about how to adjust to life without NAFTA. This does not mean the government considers American withdrawal the most likely scenario, but that there is a strong possibility that it could happen. If the United States withdraws, nothing happens overnight. NAFTA Article 2205 allows a party to withdraw from the agreement six months after it provides written notice. A lot can happen in six months regarding elections, court challenges, and evolving perceptions about the importance of NAFTA to the United States.

But businesses cannot sit back and wait for such eventualities. Risk mitigation planning should be taking place now, with businesses looking at supply chains and sourcing arrangements as well as sales and markets and making assessments on how a U.S. withdrawal would affect all of those elements. Such planning would have to extend to personnel, too. The temporary entry provisions in NAFTA, which allow Canadians and Mexicans to work in the United States in specific agreed situations, could be affected as well.

Originally published in BRINK. 

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

To print this article, all you need is to be registered on Mondaq.com.

Click to Login as an existing user or Register so you can print this article.

Authors
Similar Articles
Relevancy Powered by MondaqAI
McMillan LLP
 
In association with
Related Topics
 
Similar Articles
Relevancy Powered by MondaqAI
McMillan LLP
Related Articles
 
Related Video
Up-coming Events Search
Tools
Print
Font Size:
Translation
Channels
Mondaq on Twitter
 
Register for Access and our Free Biweekly Alert for
This service is completely free. Access 250,000 archived articles from 100+ countries and get a personalised email twice a week covering developments (and yes, our lawyers like to think you’ve read our Disclaimer).
 
Email Address
Company Name
Password
Confirm Password
Position
Mondaq Topics -- Select your Interests
 Accounting
 Anti-trust
 Commercial
 Compliance
 Consumer
 Criminal
 Employment
 Energy
 Environment
 Family
 Finance
 Government
 Healthcare
 Immigration
 Insolvency
 Insurance
 International
 IP
 Law Performance
 Law Practice
 Litigation
 Media & IT
 Privacy
 Real Estate
 Strategy
 Tax
 Technology
 Transport
 Wealth Mgt
Regions
Africa
Asia
Asia Pacific
Australasia
Canada
Caribbean
Europe
European Union
Latin America
Middle East
U.K.
United States
Worldwide Updates
Registration (you must scroll down to set your data preferences)

Mondaq Ltd requires you to register and provide information that personally identifies you, including your content preferences, for three primary purposes (full details of Mondaq’s use of your personal data can be found in our Privacy and Cookies Notice):

  • To allow you to personalize the Mondaq websites you are visiting to show content ("Content") relevant to your interests.
  • To enable features such as password reminder, news alerts, email a colleague, and linking from Mondaq (and its affiliate sites) to your website.
  • To produce demographic feedback for our content providers ("Contributors") who contribute Content for free for your use.

Mondaq hopes that our registered users will support us in maintaining our free to view business model by consenting to our use of your personal data as described below.

Mondaq has a "free to view" business model. Our services are paid for by Contributors in exchange for Mondaq providing them with access to information about who accesses their content. Once personal data is transferred to our Contributors they become a data controller of this personal data. They use it to measure the response that their articles are receiving, as a form of market research. They may also use it to provide Mondaq users with information about their products and services.

Details of each Contributor to which your personal data will be transferred is clearly stated within the Content that you access. For full details of how this Contributor will use your personal data, you should review the Contributor’s own Privacy Notice.

Please indicate your preference below:

Yes, I am happy to support Mondaq in maintaining its free to view business model by agreeing to allow Mondaq to share my personal data with Contributors whose Content I access
No, I do not want Mondaq to share my personal data with Contributors

Also please let us know whether you are happy to receive communications promoting products and services offered by Mondaq:

Yes, I am happy to received promotional communications from Mondaq
No, please do not send me promotional communications from Mondaq
Terms & Conditions

Mondaq.com (the Website) is owned and managed by Mondaq Ltd (Mondaq). Mondaq grants you a non-exclusive, revocable licence to access the Website and associated services, such as the Mondaq News Alerts (Services), subject to and in consideration of your compliance with the following terms and conditions of use (Terms). Your use of the Website and/or Services constitutes your agreement to the Terms. Mondaq may terminate your use of the Website and Services if you are in breach of these Terms or if Mondaq decides to terminate the licence granted hereunder for any reason whatsoever.

Use of www.mondaq.com

To Use Mondaq.com you must be: eighteen (18) years old or over; legally capable of entering into binding contracts; and not in any way prohibited by the applicable law to enter into these Terms in the jurisdiction which you are currently located.

You may use the Website as an unregistered user, however, you are required to register as a user if you wish to read the full text of the Content or to receive the Services.

You may not modify, publish, transmit, transfer or sell, reproduce, create derivative works from, distribute, perform, link, display, or in any way exploit any of the Content, in whole or in part, except as expressly permitted in these Terms or with the prior written consent of Mondaq. You may not use electronic or other means to extract details or information from the Content. Nor shall you extract information about users or Contributors in order to offer them any services or products.

In your use of the Website and/or Services you shall: comply with all applicable laws, regulations, directives and legislations which apply to your Use of the Website and/or Services in whatever country you are physically located including without limitation any and all consumer law, export control laws and regulations; provide to us true, correct and accurate information and promptly inform us in the event that any information that you have provided to us changes or becomes inaccurate; notify Mondaq immediately of any circumstances where you have reason to believe that any Intellectual Property Rights or any other rights of any third party may have been infringed; co-operate with reasonable security or other checks or requests for information made by Mondaq from time to time; and at all times be fully liable for the breach of any of these Terms by a third party using your login details to access the Website and/or Services

however, you shall not: do anything likely to impair, interfere with or damage or cause harm or distress to any persons, or the network; do anything that will infringe any Intellectual Property Rights or other rights of Mondaq or any third party; or use the Website, Services and/or Content otherwise than in accordance with these Terms; use any trade marks or service marks of Mondaq or the Contributors, or do anything which may be seen to take unfair advantage of the reputation and goodwill of Mondaq or the Contributors, or the Website, Services and/or Content.

Mondaq reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to take any action that it deems necessary and appropriate in the event it considers that there is a breach or threatened breach of the Terms.

Mondaq’s Rights and Obligations

Unless otherwise expressly set out to the contrary, nothing in these Terms shall serve to transfer from Mondaq to you, any Intellectual Property Rights owned by and/or licensed to Mondaq and all rights, title and interest in and to such Intellectual Property Rights will remain exclusively with Mondaq and/or its licensors.

Mondaq shall use its reasonable endeavours to make the Website and Services available to you at all times, but we cannot guarantee an uninterrupted and fault free service.

Mondaq reserves the right to make changes to the services and/or the Website or part thereof, from time to time, and we may add, remove, modify and/or vary any elements of features and functionalities of the Website or the services.

Mondaq also reserves the right from time to time to monitor your Use of the Website and/or services.

Disclaimer

The Content is general information only. It is not intended to constitute legal advice or seek to be the complete and comprehensive statement of the law, nor is it intended to address your specific requirements or provide advice on which reliance should be placed. Mondaq and/or its Contributors and other suppliers make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the Content for any purpose. All Content provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Mondaq and/or its Contributors and other suppliers hereby exclude and disclaim all representations, warranties or guarantees with regard to the Content, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title and non-infringement. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Mondaq expressly excludes all representations, warranties, obligations, and liabilities arising out of or in connection with all Content. In no event shall Mondaq and/or its respective suppliers be liable for any special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the use of the Content or performance of Mondaq’s Services.

General

Mondaq may alter or amend these Terms by amending them on the Website. By continuing to Use the Services and/or the Website after such amendment, you will be deemed to have accepted any amendment to these Terms.

These Terms shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of England and Wales and you irrevocably submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of England and Wales to settle any dispute which may arise out of or in connection with these Terms. If you live outside the United Kingdom, English law shall apply only to the extent that English law shall not deprive you of any legal protection accorded in accordance with the law of the place where you are habitually resident ("Local Law"). In the event English law deprives you of any legal protection which is accorded to you under Local Law, then these terms shall be governed by Local Law and any dispute or claim arising out of or in connection with these Terms shall be subject to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts where you are habitually resident.

You may print and keep a copy of these Terms, which form the entire agreement between you and Mondaq and supersede any other communications or advertising in respect of the Service and/or the Website.

No delay in exercising or non-exercise by you and/or Mondaq of any of its rights under or in connection with these Terms shall operate as a waiver or release of each of your or Mondaq’s right. Rather, any such waiver or release must be specifically granted in writing signed by the party granting it.

If any part of these Terms is held unenforceable, that part shall be enforced to the maximum extent permissible so as to give effect to the intent of the parties, and the Terms shall continue in full force and effect.

Mondaq shall not incur any liability to you on account of any loss or damage resulting from any delay or failure to perform all or any part of these Terms if such delay or failure is caused, in whole or in part, by events, occurrences, or causes beyond the control of Mondaq. Such events, occurrences or causes will include, without limitation, acts of God, strikes, lockouts, server and network failure, riots, acts of war, earthquakes, fire and explosions.

By clicking Register you state you have read and agree to our Terms and Conditions