Coastal Planning has received early attention from the Palaszczuk Government. Its election commitments included reinstating coastal planning laws removed by the previous government.
The policy attention is, perhaps, unsurprising. Climate change has become a mainstream social and political issue over the last decade. How society should respond is a complex and politically difficult issue. Our understanding of the science of climate change is evolving. The timing of climate change impacts is uncertain and variable. Any policy change has the potential to dramatically affect coastal planning and development.
On 8 July 2015, mapping for erosion prone areas, including a component for a 0.8m sea level rise, was restored to DEHP's website. The Government also sought feedback on its proposal to abolish the existing, and declare a new coastal management district under the Coastal Protection and Management Act 1995. Submissions closed in mid September 2015.
DEHP has indicated that it considers the 0.8m sea level rise as a reasonable and proportionate level. It acknowledges that it is the same level adopted in 2012 and that the mapping largely replicates that underpinning the Queensland Coastal Plan 2012. However, since 2012, the IPCC has published its Fifth Assessment Report with updated predictions for seal level rise.
The IPCC's Summary Report for Policymakers, which accompanied the Fifth Assessment Report, states that:
RCPs are "Representative Concentration Pathways" which, essentially, measure the amount of heat in the atmosphere. The four RCPs describe four different scenarios for green house gas (GHG) emissions. There is a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and one scenario with very high GHG emissions (RCP8.5).
Figure SPM.6b from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report illustrates global mean sea level rise as follows:
The data is summarised in the following table:
It is notable that:
- Under a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), the mean sea level rise to 2100 is 0.4m;
- Under the two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and 6.0), the mean sea level rise to 2100 is under 0.5m;
- Under the final scenario, very high GHG emissions (RCP8.5), the mean sea level rise is 0.63m; and
- Sea level rise of 0.8m is at the higher end of the likely range for the final, high GHG emission scenario (RCP8.5).
The data inevitably leads to the question - is the use of a 0.8m sea level rise really a reasonable and proportionate response to climate change risks?
Taking a hard line regulatory approach to coastal development will have major impacts on the economy. It is also contrary to a performance based planning system that has, at its core, the principle of ecologically sustainable development – requiring a balanced approach to environmental risk management, economic development and social factors. The State Planning Policy contains State interests of housing supply and diversity, liveable communities, tourism, construction and development which all recognise the logic of increasing density around infrastructure and employment opportunities. Those state interests should be balanced against, not overridden by, a fear of coastal hazards. Good coastal planning policy should build in resilience and adaptability, allowing for a balance between risk management, economic development and allowing communities to live and work on the coast. That balance should be the guiding principle applied in the review of the Coastal Management District and corresponding changes to planning policy.
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