Virtually all – 97 per cent – of respondents think
that the BRIC countries will have a significant (33 per cent) or
very significant (64 per cent) impact on the agribusiness sector.
This data contrasts with our 2012 survey, in which 91 per cent of
respondents saw the BRIC nations having a 'very
significant' impact on the industry. This appears to be
consistent with the global view that the BRIC countries as a bloc
are having a lesser impact on global growth and that a broader
group of emerging markets is driving demand and supply in the
agribusiness industry. Parts of Africa and South East Asia (for
example Indonesia and Vietnam) are seen as increasingly
The BRIC nations are still very important as producers and
consumers. Respondents point to the huge demand coming from China,
especially with rising affluence and the growth of the middle
class. One respondent highlights the sizeable growth in demand for
dairy products in China and the effect that this demand has had on
global prices. Even so, respondents believe that China will become
more self-sufficient over time. According to respondents,
China's domestic policies appear to be geared towards national
food security rather than supporting international agribusiness.
This is likely to translate into greater M&A activity in the
agribusiness industry by Chinese companies, a trend which is
already apparent in Australia.
Although considered a major consumer and importer, India is
thought to have less influence on world markets than China. It has
different eating habits to China. Recent data published by the FAO
indicated that it has the lowest rate of meat consumption in the
world. In addition, India's sizeable infrastructure deficit
prevents it from being a major exporter in agribusiness.
Brazil is commended by respondents for its status and capacity
as a key global exporter. Respondents praise Brazil for its
appetite for investment and its ability to increase yields per
hectare. Brazil's enthusiasm for agribusiness is thought to be
permeating into neighbouring countries in South America, such as
Argentina and Chile, which are now looking to imitate Brazil's
Respondents see Russia and Ukraine as significant players in the
market, but believe they have so far failed fully to realise their
enormous potential. Russia has not integrated with global markets
in the same way that Brazil has, although respondents recognise
that Russia's land capacity and attractive climate,
particularly in the Black Sea region, could be harnessed to enable
it to be a major exporter. Respondents expect Russia to be a
significant wheat producer in the future.
South East Asia is thought to have significant potential, in
part because the climate in certain regions is conducive to the
agribusiness industry, but also because of the region's
proximity to the major consumer markets of India and, in
Brazil and the neighbouring states of Argentina and Chile are
also expected to be key for sourcing supply in the coming years.
Brazil is already an established player in this regard, but
respondents expect Chile and Argentina to become sizeable
"The biggest opportunity will come from
South East Asia. In 2015 there will be integration of border
controls and this will increase transactions within the region.
This will be very beneficial and will also help to reduce the
Antonio Tiu, CEO, Agrinurture
East and sub-Saharan Africa offer a productive climate, but
respondents express concern about the under-developed
infrastructure and, in some jurisdictions, the uncertain political
climate. One survey participant points to the potential of Sudan,
but because of US sanctions Sudan is seen as high risk. Ethiopia,
Zambia, Zimbabwe and Uganda are also seen as promising
Russia, Ukraine and the Baltic States are highlighted by
respondents as having significant potential. The Black Sea region
is believed to be especially attractive for investment, but
respondents are concerned by the lack of infrastructure and the
unpredictable political environment.
Respondents with Australian and New Zealand interests note the
number of opportunities for Australia and New Zealand to supply to
emerging markets as demand in those markets grows.
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guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought
about your specific circumstances.
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