We follow the evolution of consensus, or average forecasts for GDP growth to get a sense of how the global economic cycle is unfolding. Changes in consensus forecasts identify where growth is disappointing and where it is coming in stronger than expected.
Economists expect the pace of global activity to pick up only slightly in 2015. But they expect the geographical composition of growth to change significantly.
In a break with the post-crisis trend, the general expectation is that the pickup in global growth will be driven by advanced, not emerging, economies in 2015. According to the IMF, emerging market and developing economies will, this year, account for the lowest share of global growth since 2003.
Several factors have contributed to weaker growth in the emerging economies. Low oil and food grains prices have hit two of the world's major commodity producers, Brazil and Russia; both economies are expected to shrink this year. Russia has also suffered as a result of Western economic sanctions imposed over the conflict in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, a squeeze on credit and infrastructure spending means the Chinese economy has continued to slow. At around 6.8%, the pace of China's expansion this year is likely to be the slowest in a quarter of a century.
Among the large emerging economies India has bucked the trend to weaker growth. Forecasts for the Indian economy have risen sharply since the start of this year. As a significant oil importer, India benefits from low oil prices and looks likely to overtake China as the fastest growing major emerging economy this year.
The US and the UK are expected to be the strongest performers this year among the G7 group of major industrialised nations this year. Both economies are forecast to post growth around the 2.5% mark.
Much of the US growth data have come in on the weak side of expectations so far this year and economists have scaled back their expectations for GDP forecasts. US exports have suffered from the strength of the dollar and cheap oil has lowered US investment in shale exploration and drilling.
Nonetheless, the US recovery looks pretty well entrenched. Low inflation is boosting consumer spending power and credit, especially mortgage credit, is cheap and increasingly available. The first quarter slowdown in US growth is, most probably, an aberration. It is a sign of the US Federal Reserve's confidence in the recovery that last week the its chairwoman, Janet Yellen, signalled that she expects to raise US interest rates this year.
While US growth has been disappointing so far this year euro area activity has come in on the strong side of expectations. In a sign that falling prices, cheap money and a weaker currency are working their magic, the euro area has seen a sustained rise in growth forecasts since the start of the year. At the same time, fears that the euro area might drop into a sustained period of deflation have eased.
Prospects for Germany have improved since January, but expectations for France, Italy, Spain, Ireland and Portugal are also looking up. With the exception of Greece, where growth forecasts have plummeted since start of the year, growth in the so-called periphery of the euro area is starting to come back. With forecast GDP growth of 3.2% and 2.8% respectively, Ireland and Spain are likely to be the euro area's fastest growing economies this year.
Overall the global recovery seems to be on track. The US economy has wobbled this year while the euro area has done rather better than expected. But the big picture is still one of slightly softer growth in emerging economies and rather better growth in the industrialised world.
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