II. TURKISH ECONOMY:‘FINANCIAL AND BUDGETARY PROVISONS’

1. General Overview

The Turkish economy has undergone significant changes in the last 20 years. It has moved from a highly protected state-directed system to a market-orientated free-enterprise economy. Reforms initiated since 1980 have, among other things, largely removed price controls and reduced subsidies, reduced the role of the public sector in the economy, emphasized growth in the industrial and service sectors, liberalized foreign trade, reduced tariffs, promoted export growth, eased capital transfer and exchange controls, encouraged foreign investment, strengthened the independence of the Republic of Turkiye Central Bank (‘TCMB’), led to full convertibility of the Turkish Lira by accepting Article-VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement and overhauled the tax system.

In 1999, due to the repercussions of the emerging market economic crisis and the adverse effect of the earthquakes in Izmit and Duzce, the Gross National Product (‘GNP’) decreased by 6.1%. In 2000, the GNP increased by 6.3%, which was above the projected increase in the IMF-sponsored program, due in part to earthquake reconstruction and falling interest rates.

In 2001, the collapse of the crawling-peg exchange rate regime and the subsequent banking crisis triggered a 9.5% contraction in the GNP.

A strong recovery during the second half of 2002 boosted the GNP growth rate to 7.9%. This economic recovery was driven by several factors, including a consistent rise in exports, steady improvement in domestic confidence and a faster than expected turnaround in inventory accumulation. The sharp turnaround in inventory-building and strong export performance boosted industry output by 9.2% in 2002. Nominal wage increases for public sector employees, direct government income support for farmers, and stepped-up spending on non-wage goods and services increased public sector consumption expenditures by 5.4%.

Private consumption growth remained modest at 0.1% in 2002. Private sector fixed investment spending was also low. During the years 2001 and 2002, weak credit availability to the non-financial private sector, low credit quality and tough capital regulations put pressure on banks lending to the private sector, while the highly volatile pattern of the financial markets lowered the ability for banks to fund themselves.

In 2003, the Turkish economy out-performed the 2002-2004 Stand-By Arrangement on the back of currency stability, productivity gains, competitive market pressures, strong export growth and confidence recovery. Successful implementation of the IMF-supported program, progress towards EU accession and strong relations with the U.S. have restored a measure of stability to Turkiye’s financial markets. All of these have opened the way for sustained economic and political reform, providing a major boost to Turkiye’s efforts towards disinflation and, in turn, helping compress debt yields. Financial markets have reacted positively to Turkiye’s progress in the disinflation program, with a year-end inflation expectations edging below the end-2005 CPI-inflation target of 8,0%.

In this environment, most companies modified their pricing strategies and cost bases in response to new cost structure and demand conditions. Corporate sector rationalization further strengthened the competitive market pressures, in turn leading to an overhaul in Turkiye’s uncompetitive, oligopolistic market structure. Coupled with efficiency-enhancing measures, the Turkish manufacturing industry benefited from strong productivity gains and sharp declines in unit labor costs. Improvements in productivity growth and downside pressures on real wages not only contributed to the disinflation, but also limited the adverse effects of the Turkish Lira’s appreciation over Turkiye’s external competitiveness.

The corporate sector’s return -on -equity and return -on -assets ratios are now back at the levels which prevailed in mid-1998. The improvements in productivity gains, corporate profits and the recovery in financial conditions contributed to capital formation, increasing the private sector’s appetite for hiring new staff and undertaking new investments.

As a result of these factors, GDP rose a further 5.8% in 2003 after increasing 7.9% in 2002. Pursuant to research conducted by the United Nations, GDP per capita (calculated according to purchasing power of individuals) of Turkiye is above US$7,000.

Externally, although the Turkish Lira’s overvaluation and the weak global economic environment raised concerns on the outlook for exports, Turkiye’s exports continued to perform well in 2003, rising as much as 30.5% on a year-on-year basis. The improvement in labor productivity, the disinflationary gains and the downward trend in interest rates have helped buffer the external competitiveness from any potential negative impacts resulting from the Turkish Lira appreciation.

Turkiye’s exports started growing significantly in July 2002, increasing at an annual average rate of 19.2% from US$27.8 billion for 2000 to US$47 billion for 2003. Annual growth rates for exports of electronic equipment and white goods (22.8%), chemical and plastics (22.0%) and especially those of automobiles (48.8%) were even more robust over the 2001-2003 period.

Every industry in the manufacturing sector (except tobacco production) saw its exports rise by at least 30% from the 2000 level, while four industries more than doubled their exports. Unsurprisingly, the traditionally strong export sectors of textiles, iron and steel, machinery, electronic equipment, food and beverages, and automobiles dominated the aggregate numbers, accounting for 67.4% of total exports in 2003.

The recovery in domestic consumption and investment spending, together with continued growth in industrial output, caused import volumes on a CIF basis to increase significantly, rising by 34.5% to US$69.3 billion in 2003 from US$51.5 billion in 2002.

Turkiye’s current account deficit therefore widened to US$6.8 billion for 2003, compared to a deficit of US$1.5 billion for the full-year 2002, but this was lower than the government forecast of US$7.7 billion. With a trade deficit totaling US$22.1 billion, Turkiye’s current account deficit was approximately 2.9% of GNP in 2003. Excluding interest payments on the external debt gives a deficit of 0.9% of GNP for 2003.

Inflation has declined to its lowest levels in three decades, with prices rising by 7.62% on a year-on-year basis for CPI in November, 2005. After adjustments to administered prices, lower unit labor costs, ongoing productivity gains and currency strength, WPI fell to 10.52% on a year-on-year basis in August 2004. Strong deceleration in the underlying inflation rate, together with the strong Turkish Lira, has weakened inflationary pass-through effects, creating a vicious circle of low inflation expectations. Given the strong prospects for the disinflation process, the Turkish economy now has the potential to help buffer the disinflationary gains from the seasonal jumps and/or temporary disturbances.

The sharp turn around in Turkiye’s economic and political fundamentals has fueled resident capital repatriation, helping stimulate the de-dollarisation process and thus currency appreciation. The low inflation environment is likely to lead to a further drop in the Dollarisation Rate to the range of 35% to 40% in the medium term. Such a lower degree of dollarisation would imply a structural change in "hedging" habits and a rebalancing of financial portfolios in favor of Turkish Lira-denominated assets.

2. Gross Domestic Product ("GDP")

In 2003, the industrial sector, which includes mining and quarrying, manufacturing and energy, accounted for 29.3% of GDP compared with 22.3% in 1980. The agricultural sector share of GDP was approximately 12.4% in 2003, compared with 25.1% in 1980, while that of services was 52.6% in 1980 and 58.3% in 2003.

In 2004, the Turkish economy recorded a real growth of 8.9% for GDP and 9.9% for GNP, which is the highest growth ratio recorded and also higher than the real growth of the People’s Republic of China for 2004. According to data for 2003 released by the State Statistical Institute (‘DIE’), the industrial sector’s share of GDP is 29.3%, the agricultural sector’s share is 12.4% and the service sector’s share of GDP is 58.3%. Therefore, key growth can clearly be seen in the industrial sector in Turkiye.

In the first half of 2005, The Turkish economy displayed a growth rate of 4.8% for GDP and 5.3% for GNP. In terms of expenditures, the main contributors to growth were private investment, private consumption and exports. The economy is expected to grow well above the targeted 5% level in 2004.

Turkiye’s GDP per capita in purchasing power parity was only 29% of the EU-25 average in 2004. Regional income disparities are very significant. At 37% of the EU average, per-capita income in the Istanbul region was some 43% higher that the national average.

Information concerning the shares of GDP of various business sectors can be found on the DIE website at http://www.die.gov.tr/ENGLISH/index.html

3. Government Budget

The Letter of Intent floor for 2003 for the IMF-defined primary surplus was achieved at the end of December 2003. The IMF-defined primary surplus of TRY17,950 trillion was 5.03% of GNP, marginally higher than the 5.0% IMF target. As a result of the revenues from the tax amnesty scheme, which were in excess of TL1.5 quadrillion for 2003, and additional income generating measures, 2003 tax revenues of TRY84,334 trillion were up by 12.6% in real terms, slightly below the target of TRY86,800 trillion.

The government has reached an agreement with the IMF on a package of measures to cover a TRY7,000 trillion (US$5.3 billion) financing gap, which resulted mainly from the minimum wage and pension salary hikes. As part of this agreement, the Turkish Parliament has passed a budget amendment to reduce the financing gap. As part of the expenditure-cutting package in the budget, the government plans to reduce domestic VAT refunds and shrink the funding gap in the social security system through the contribution of reduced VAT on pharmaceuticals. In addition, under the budget, excise taxes on petroleum products were increased by 3.7% - 4.2% and a lump sum tax was imposed on cigarettes that raised the price per packet by 12%.

In addition, the government plans to increase special consumption tax to generate additional revenues of TRY500 trillion. In aggregate with the recently introduced corrective fiscal measures, the government is estimated by the end of 2004 to raise approximately TRY2.5 quadrillion.

In the first seven months of 2004, the non-interest surplus of the consolidated budget rose by 61.9% in real terms on a year-on-year basis. The tax revenues in the same period accounted for 54.3% of the government’s full year target of TRY88.9 quadrillion. In aggregate, budget revenues ended July 2004 at TRY60,659 trillion, 58.3% of the target for the full-year of 2004. On the expenditures side of the budget, non-interest spending during the first seven months of 2004 decreased by 13.6% in real terms from a year earlier. In aggregate, the consolidated budget balance posted a deficit of TRY15.9 quadrillion in the first seven months of 2004; this is 34.8% of the government’s year-end target of TRY45.8 quadrillion.

Information concerning the Government Budget can be found on the Treasury website at www.treasury.gov.tr

4. Privatization

In 2002, the privatization targets were not fully met, in part because of the elections. Total sales reached US$540 million, of which cash proceeds accounted for US$260 million. In November 2002, Privatization Administration ("PA") shares in DITAS (crude oil transportation) were transferred to the other major existing shareholder, TUPRAS (petroleum refineries), for US$16.5 million. In addition, in the third quarter of 2002, the government tendered out the sale of TAKSAN (machinery), GERKONSAN (iron and steel), IGSAS (fertilizer), TZDK (agricultural equipment) and four facilities of SEKA (paper and pulp). Negotiations regarding the four state enterprises and two facilities of SEKA, initiated in 2002, were finalized and submitted for approval by the Privatization High Council in 2003.

The government conveyed its intentions by announcing the 2003 privatization program on January 13, 2003. Moreover, the PA is examining the related legislation to include the Istanbul Stock Exchange ("ISE"), the Istanbul Gold Bourse, the National Lottery Agency and Halk Bank. The program consisted of privatization of large public companies, and also of some medium- and small-sized public assets. At the end of 2003, revenues from privatizations for the year were approximately US$171.6 million. In the January-October 2004 period, the Turkish Government realized cash inflows of approximately US$1.1 billion from privatization.

The initial bids for the privatization of the state’s stake in TEKEL and TUPRAS were submitted on October 24, 2003.

Tender announcement for the block sale of 65.76% of public shares in TUPRAS was made on June 7, 2003. Final negotiations were held on January 13, 2004. The highest bid was given by Efremov Kautschuk GMBH and stood at US$1,302,000,000 and the bid has been approved by the Privatization High Council. On June 3, 2004, the Ankara Administrative Court cancelled the decision of the tender commission to privatize 65.76% of public shares in TUPRAS. Under the ruling of the Ankara Administrative Court, the TUPRAS privatization cancellation was confirmed by the Council of State on November 26, 2004.

The second tender process (through a block sale by using the sale method) for the 51% of TÜPRAŞ started on April 29, 2005 with publication of the tender announcement. The initial bids were submitted on September 2, 2005 and the highest bid was given by Koc-Shell OGG with an amount of US$ 4,140,000,000, which was more than triple that of the highest bid issued at the previous tender, although the percentage of shares offered was 14.76 % lower than the shares offered at the tender in 2004.

TEKEL, the other large company that was tendered, was first restructured by the PA, transforming "TEKEL Tobacco Industry Establishment" and "Alcoholic Beverages Industry Establishment" into "Cigarette Industry Enterprise and Trade Company Incorporated" and "Alcoholic Beverages Industry Enterprise and Trade Company Incorporated," respectively, along with all claims and liabilities.

The "Marketing and Distribution Establishment," which was also owned by TEKEL, became two separate companies, namely, "Cigarette Marketing and Distribution Company Incorporated" and "Alcoholic Beverages Marketing and Distribution Company Incorporated" and has been associated with the aforementioned companies. Advertisements were issued in June 2004 to start the tendering process for the sale of 100% of the stocks of Cigarette Industry Enterprise and Trade Company Incorporated and Alcoholic Beverages Industry Enterprise and Trade Company. The US$292 million tender of Alcoholic Beverages Industry Enterprise and Trade Company Incorporation was completed in February 2004. The PA cancelled the tender for the sale of Cigarette Industry Enterprise and Trade Company Inc. because the highest bid was found to be too low by the PA.

The privatization plan for Turk Telekom was first approved by the Council of Ministers Pursuant to the Council of Ministers Decree dated 15.10.2004 No. 2004/7931 55% of Turk Telekom’s shares will be privatized through a block sale, while a tender announcement for such sale was launched on May 31, 2004. The final negotiations were held on July, 1 2005 and the highest bid was given Oger Telecom with an amount of US$ 6,550,000,000. Agreement for the privatization of 55 % of Turk Telekom shares was signed on August 24, 2005. Following the block sale, the remaining shares are planned to be offered to the public.

The privatization strategy of ERDEMIR Steel and Iron Works was determined as block sale by Privatization High Council (PHC) and the formal tender process for the block sale of 46,12 % shares belonging to Privatisation Administration of ERDEMİR commenced with the tender announcements on May 24, 2005.Turkiye’s sole integrated flat steel and the largest iron and steel company with 2.38 and 3.13 million tons of production of crude steel and final products respectively the deadline for the application of pre-qualification was July 14 2005, and the deadline for the delivery of the bids was September 26, 2005.

With the 23.06.2005 dated and 250 numbered board decision of the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (‘TMSF’) the previously confiscated TELSIM (the second largest GSM operator in Turkiye with 10 million customers) GSM operating license and its assets will be put in tender with an estimated value of USD$2.8 billion. The deadline for submitting bids is December 5, 2005. TMSF contemplates to close the sale before 2006 (http://www.tmsf.org.tr/default.aspx?lang=eng).

Privatizations of BURSAGAZ (city of Bursa natural gas distribution) raising US$120 million, IGSAS (fertilizer producer) raising US$100.5 million and ESGAZ (city of Eskisehir natural gas distribution) raising US$43 million were conducted in 2004.

As of September 8, 2004, the amount of the privatizations, together with the immovables belonging of the institutions that are at the stage of contract, totals US$1.5 billion. In addition, the amount of the auctions that await approval comes to US$147.7 million, while the projects that have been signed total US$804.8 million as of September 8, 2004. Auctions that have been concluded are SIDAS, SEKA Akkus Premise, and SEKA Ardanuc Premise. The amount gained from the privatization projects concluded from January, 2003 to May, 2005 is approximately US$ 3.2 billion.

The only project that is at the stage of contract is Beykoz Premises of Sumer Holding. Institutions which await approval of the PA are Samsun Fertilizer, TUPRAS (Turkish Petroleum Refinery), Adapazari Seker, Turkish State Railway (‘TCDD’) Mersin and Iskenderun Ports, and the Istanbul Hilton. Contracts were signed in 2004 for Gemlik Fertilizer, TEKEL (Alcoholic Beverages), the premises of Seka Karacasu, the premises of KBI Samsun, Eti Copper, Div-Han (mining), Manisa Meat Processing Unit, the Malatya and Tumosan Premises of Sumer Holding, Amasya Sugar Factory, and Eti Silver and in 2005 for Government Water Works (‘DSI’) General Directorate, Erciyes Social Premises, Eti Aluminum, Cyprus Turkish Airlines (‘KKHY’), Samsun Fertilizer and TUGSAS Tarsus warehouses.

In terms of energy assets, the Electrical Strategy Paper has made it clear that some hydraulic and thermal plants that belong to Energy Production Co.(‘EUAS’), some hydraulic production facilities that belong to Energy Production Co. and DSI, and energy distribution areas will be privatized after preparation work. The 19 distribution areas will be prepared in infrastructural and legal terms for privatization.

According to the 2004 Privatization Program, the government plans to announce a new strategy for the sale of TEKEL’s tobacco unit and to hold talks with potential investors in PETKIM (Petrochemicals Refineries). The government also plans to proceed with the privatization of SEKER (Sugar Refineries), a stake of up to 15% in Turkish Airlines (‘THY’), and the National Lottery Administration (‘MPA’).

The privatization of Turk Telekom (‘TT’) was initiated on November 25, 2004 with a block sale of 55% of its shares. The decision for the winning bid submitted by OGER Telecoms Joint Venture Group became effective on August 2, 2005 and was approved by the Council of State on October 25, 2005.

The government has adopted an electricity reform and privatization strategy, which envisages the launch of privatization tenders in energy distribution by December 2006. To expedite the privatization process, the government amended the public procurement and public contract legislation to allow for more flexibility in the procedures and the terms for hiring consultants.

Information concerning the privatization processes in the various business sectors can be found on the PA website at http://www.oib.gov.tr/index_eng.htm

5. Public Sector Borrowing Requirement ("PSBR / GNP")

The public sector borrowing requirement as a percentage of GNP ratio declined to 8.7% in 2003 from 12.8% in 2002 and 16.4% in 2001, primarily as a result of assistance provided by the IMF. The following table sets out information as to Turkiye’s public sector borrowing requirement for the years indicated.

PSBR / GNP

 

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003(1)

 

(% of GNP)

Consolidated Budget.

7.3

11.9

10.9

17.4

14.9

11.4

SEE

1.3

2.3

1.6

0.4

1.0

0.9

Funds

0.1

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.0

0.6

Other Public

0.7

0.5

0.0

0.9

1.1

1.1

Total

9.4

15.5

11.8

16.4

12.8

8.7

Source: Undersecretariat of the Treasury ( www.hazine.gov.tr ); as of September, 2004.

(1) Figures are provisional.

6. Foreign Trade and Economic Trends

Turkiye’s export markets are highly diversified. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Turkish exports are directed to EU countries. The largest export markets for Turkish products are Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. Turkish exports to Germany have increased since German unification. Although trade with Iraq have been suspended (other than permitted medical exports) due to an embargo, Turkiye’s exports to other Middle Eastern and North African countries have increased. Following the Iraq war in the first half of 2003, the rebuilding needs of Iraq are providing Turkiye with opportunities in construction.

Turkiye has, for several years, been in the process of bringing its commercial laws and laws relating to capital movement into line with those of the EU. In this context, various intellectual property protection laws were promulgated in June 1995 and amendments were made to those sections of the Turkish Commercial Code ("TTK") concerning the regulation of joint stock companies and limited companies. Furthermore, the Capital Markets Law was amended to cover, among other things, companies consisting of 250 or more shareholders, to facilitate the procedure for capital increases, to facilitate the establishment of markets for futures and options transactions and to bring into force new regulations for the operation of intermediary institutions under financial hardship.

Turkiye is heavily reliant upon imports, the greatest proportion of which is intermediary goods. Since the bulk of Turkiye’s exports are manufactured products, the high level of such intermediary imports used in the manufacturing process is an important indicator of business activity and output.

In 2002, merchandise exports (excluding shuttle-trade) increased by 15.1% compared to 2001 and reached US36.1 billion, while merchandise imports increased by 24.5% compared to 2001, reaching US$51.5 billion.

In 2003, following the strong December data, merchandise exports reached US$47.2 billion, higher than the government’s target of US$45.9 billion, while imports for 2003 reached US$69.3 billion with a 34.3% year-on-year rise. As a result, Turkiye’s trade deficit widened by 42.5% on a year-on-year basis, to about US$22.1 billion in 2003.

In 2003, the Turkish Lira’s appreciation and the weak external backdrop raised concerns on the outlook for exports. However, 17 of the sub-sectors in the manufacturing industry were all export-oriented sectors and sharp rises in labor productivity lowered the cost of producing exportable goods. The improvement in labor productivity, sustained disinflationary gains, the downward trend in interest rates and the strong Euro all helped buffer the external competitiveness from potential negative fallout of the currency appreciation.

Turkiye’s exports continued to perform well in the first seven months of 2004, rising as much as 32.7% year-on-year to US$34.4 billion, from US$25.9 billion in 2003. At the end of the year, Turkiye’s export was recorded as US$ 63.12 billion.

The recovery in domestic consumption and investment spending, together with continued growth in industrial output, caused import volumes (on a CIF basis) to increase by 45.1%, reaching approximately US$53.8 billion at the end of July 2004.

Turkiye’s trade deficit widened by 73.6% year-on-year to about US$19.4 billion at the end of July of 2004 on the back of soaring imports.

7. Foreign Direct Investment and Privatization

In 2005, higher Privatization receipts, new real estate sales to foreigners and the sale of TUPRAS (15%), Eti Aluminium, PETKIM and Turk Telecom (55%) contributed to a moderate increase in net FDI.

This may increase, if the TUPRAS (51%) and Galata Port privatizations are successfully completed and agreed upon by all relevant government bodies.

Privatization intentions with the three State Banks (Ziraat, Halk and Vakıf) have not led to any concrete results yet. HSBC and Unicredito were the only foreign banks with an important presence.

However, in the first half of 2005, BNP-Paribas, Fortis and ING purchased shares in major Turkish Banks. If all recent merger and acquisitions are to be reflected in official statistics, the foreign state in the total assets of the Turkish Banking sector is now reckoned to be over 12%.

The following table presents Turkiye’s main macroeconomic indicators for the periods indicated.

Turkiye’s Main Macroeconomic Indicators

Data / Year

%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Gross Domestic Product (‘GDP’)

ann. %ch

7.3

-7.5

7.9

5.8

9.0

4.5

Private Consumption

ann.% ch

6.2

-9.2

2.1

6.6

10.1

4.2

Good Fixed Capital Formation

ann.% ch

16.9

-31.5

-1.1

10.0

32.4

12.4

Unemployment

%

6.6

8.5

10.4

10.5

10.3

10.5

Employment

ann.% ch

:

0.0

-0.3

-0.8

2.0

3.6

Wages

ann.% ch

55.8

31.8

37.2

23.0

13.4

12.5

Current Account Balance

% of GDP

-5.0

2.4

-0.8

-3.3

-5.2

-5.7

Foreign Direct Investment (‘FDI’)

% of GDP

0.1

1.9

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.7

CPI

ann.% ch

54.9

54.4

45.0

21.6

8.6

8.0

Interest Rate (3 months)

% p.a.

47.2

74.7

50.5

37.7

24.3

20.4

Bond Yield

% p.a.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

Stock Markets

Index

14.458

10.127

11.013

12.312

19.899

27.366

Exchange Rates (TRY/EUR)

Value

0.58

1.09

1.43

1.69

1.77

1.69

Nominal Effective Exchange Rate

Index

74.2

41.5

31.1

27.5

26.8

28.0

General Government Budget

% of GDP

-6.1

-29.8

-12.3

-9.7

-3.9

:

General Government Debt

% of GDP

57.4

105.2

94.3

87.2

80.1

:

Source: TCMB (http://www.tcmb.gov.tr ) and Eurostat as of October 2005.

8. The New Turkish Lira and Kurus ("YTL" and "YKr")

The law on the Currency Unit of the Republic of Turkiye (Law No. 5083) was published in the Turkish Official Gazette on January 31, 2004.

A new currency, known as New Turkish Lira ("YTL" or ‘TRY’) and its sub-unit Yeni Kurus ("YKr") was introduced on January 1, 2005 and six zeros were deleted from TL on January 1, 2005. Turkish Lira and New Turkish Lira banknotes and coins will both be in physical circulation for the duration of 2005..

However, as of January 1, 2006, old Turkish Lira banknotes will be withdrawn from circulation; the Central Bank will convert old Turkish Lira to New Turkish Lira for a period of ten years. After 2006 (when old Turkish Lira banknotes are withdrawn from circulation), the word "new" will be eliminated from the name "New Turkish Lira" and the currency of Turkiye will again be called ‘Turkish Lira’.

The conversion rate of the Turkish Lira to the New Turkish Lira is : TL 1,000,000 = YTL 1. 1 New Turkish Lira is equal to 100 Yeni Kurus.

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

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